The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a major pro-Israel lobbying group, celebrated a significant achievement following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent speech in Congress. AIPAC’s lobbyists worked tirelessly to rally support among members of Congress and senators, many of whom gave enthusiastic applause during Netanyahu’s address. Despite this show of support, over 120 Congress members and senators chose to boycott the speech, including around half of all representatives from the Democratic Party. Notably, Democratic Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, of Palestinian-American descent, stood among the members holding anti-war signs.
Outside the Capitol, thousands of demonstrators protested against Netanyahu and their elected representatives, highlighting the deep divisions over US-Israel relations. The spectacle of hundreds of members of Congress standing repeatedly to cheer the prime minister of a foreign country drew widespread attention and raised eyebrows globally.
In his speech, Netanyahu reiterated familiar themes from the Israeli Foreign Ministry, portraying Israel as a nation fighting against “bad actors” like Hamas and Iran. He emphasized the need for the US to take a strong stance against Iran, a message he has consistently delivered for two decades. Netanyahu’s call for US military intervention against Iran echoed his longstanding position on the issue.
The geopolitical landscape further complicates this narrative. Saudi Arabia and several Gulf States share Israel’s adversarial stance toward Iran. However, Netanyahu’s collaboration with the Saudi royal family has not yielded favorable outcomes for the leadership of the Democratic Party in the US. There is a significant concern that a direct conflict between the US and Iran could escalate into a broader confrontation involving Russia.
Amidst Netanyahu’s highly publicized visit, the issue of a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas received limited attention. Families of Israeli captives remain divided politically and have struggled to convince the Prime Minister to accept a deal proposed by Egypt, Qatar, and the US.
Historical context adds complexity to the situation. On September 11, 2004, under Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Israel approved a prisoner exchange with Hezbollah, trading approximately 400 Palestinian prisoners and others for the release of Elhanan Tanenbaum and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers.
Currently, Netanyahu faces pressure from political allies like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have focused on legislative priorities such as laws affecting ultra-Orthodox communities. Netanyahu’s government has managed to navigate recent parliamentary sessions without collapsing, granting him a period of relative political stability until October. During this time, he could pursue a prisoner deal or consider military action in Lebanon.
Looking ahead, Netanyahu faces the challenge of passing the state budget in October. Budget negotiations could precipitate a government crisis, potentially leading to early elections in March 2025 if coalition partners Smotrich and Ben-Gvir do not get their desired outcomes.
On the international front, significant changes are anticipated. The European Union is set to undergo leadership transitions, and UN institutions remain divided and unable to enforce a ceasefire in ongoing conflicts. With the US elections in November 2024 on the horizon, significant shifts in Israel, Gaza, or the Palestinian Authority appear unlikely. Meanwhile, Israeli settlers continue to assert their presence, awaiting the next US administration’s efforts to recalibrate international relations.
